The 2021 Federal Election: The Conservatives are in the lead

Posted on August 31st, 2021 in Surveys

DISCOVER OUR MOST RECENT RESULTS BELOW!

Leger polled Canadians on their voting intentions and their outlook for this Election. We look forward to providing relevant data about this important moment for Canada.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS

“The early campaign narrative of “Why call an election now since you are going to win anyway?” is now the past. As of today, this race could go either way.

The Conservatives need significantly more votes than the Liberals, if they wish to form government. (Remember, they lost the 2019 election with 1% more votes.) But it’s possible: not only are they are making a breakthrough in Atlantic Canada, but they also have at least 20% of the share of vote in Quebec and are within striking distance of the Liberals in Ontario. Another concern for the incumbent liberals is the strength of the NDP in Ontario and BC, which could cost them seats in both provinces.” – Christian Bourque, Executive Vice-President, Leger

Federal Voting Intentions

2021 FEDERAL ELECTION

  • In the past week, 41% of Canadians say their opinion of Justin Trudeau has deteriorated, while 23% say their opinions of Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh have improved. 
  • 56% of Canadians are dissatisfied with the Government of Canada, led by Justin Trudeau – an increase of 5 percentage points *. 
  • When Canadians are asked which leader would make Canada’s best Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh tie at 23%, but Erin O’Toole is a close second (21%). 
  • When Canadians are asked who will win the next Federal Election and form the next government: 
    • 39% say the Liberal Party (–8 percentage points *) 
    • 28% say the Conservative Party (+10 percentage points *) 
    • 7% say the New Democratic Party (–1 percentage point *) 

* Since our last survey, dated August 17, 2021.

Opinion on Party Leaders

Our comprehensive poll also covers important election campaign issues, such as accessibility to health care, the affordability of housing, and gun control. 

METHODOLOGY

This web survey was conducted from August 27, 2021 to August 30, 2021 with 2,005 Canadians and 1,004 Americans, 18 years of age or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

To view the August 31, 2021 report, CLICK HERE.

Who do think will win the upcoming Federal Election and form the next Government? 

TELL US IN THE COMMENTS BELOW!

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